Should You Buy Stocks During This Market Fall? From A Long-Term Investor’s Framework [2026]

Introduction

The market has fallen over 10% from its peak.

And my inbox notification is buzzing nonstop since Monday.

Friends, family, my readers/subscribers — everyone is asking me the same question:

“Should I buy now? Or should I wait? Or should I just get out of the market?“

I can understand this feeling.

Watching our portfolio go in deep red, day after day, is not a comfortable experience.

I get it, completely.

But before you do anything — before you buy, before you sell, before you even open your trading app — I want you to just sit with me for the next few minutes.

Because what I am going to share today is not only about “this” particular stock market fall.

I will share with you a framework — a way of thinking — that can help dealing with every market correction you will face in your investing life. So let us start from the beginning.

WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW, AND WHY

As of this week, the Nifty 50 has officially entered what analysts call a “technical correction” zone.

What that means simply is this — the index has fallen more than 10% from its recent peak.

The Nifty hit a record high of 26,373 on January, 2026. And since then, it has touched the bottom of 23,740 levels.

That is a fall of over 10% in just two months.

Now, for new investors, a 10% fall on index level may sound very scary.

But let me tell you something — this is not unusual. For sure, a 10% correction does not happen every year, but it has happened many times in the past.

SL	Period	Approx. Peak Level	Approx. Trough Level	Correction (%)
1	Sep 2016 – Dec 2016	~8,970	~7,900	-11%
2	Jan 2018 – Mar 2018	~11,170	~9,980	-12%
3	Aug 2018 – Oct 2018	~11,760	~10,000	-13%
4	Jan 2020 – Mar 2020	~12,430	~7,610	-38% (Covid)
5	Oct 2021 – Mar 2022	~18,600	~15,200	-18%
6	Dec 2022 – Mar 2023	~18,880	~16,830	-11%
7	Sep 2024 – Jan 2025	~26,300	~23,250	-11.60%

Like this, there has been seven instances in the last 10 years alone where the market has corrected by more than 10%.

So we can say this in reference to the current times that, the market is currently behaving exactly the way it has always behaved.

• Corrections happen.
• They have always happened.
• And they will continue to happen in the future as well.

But let us understand what is causing this particular fall, because understanding the cause will help us to judge how serious is the current market fall:

There are three (3) main causes:

1. The first and most important trigger is crude oil prices. On 09-Mar-2026, the Brent crude crossed 110 dollars per barrel.

The price surge was driven by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran in the Middle East.

India imports over 85% of all its crude oil requirement. So when global oil prices go up, it hits India from three directions at the same time.

• First, it increases our import bill, which eventually widens our current account deficit.
  • Second, it pushes up inflation, because high fuel prices affect everything — transport, manufacturing, food, everything.
  • And third, it weakens the rupee. Why?Because we need to spend more US dollars to buy the same amount of oil.

This is what analysts call a “three-way blow.” And it is genuinely difficult for the market to absorb.

• The second factor that is causing the fall is FII selling. Large foreign funds have been selling Indian stocks for quite some time now.

In 2025 alone, foreign investors sold a net of over 1.66 lakh crore rupees worth of Indian equities.

• That is the highest annual FII outflow in India’s history.
  • And this selling momentum continued even into January 2026. In Jan’2026, FIIs pulled out about 35,000 crore in a single month.
  • Why are FIIs selling?
    • It’s partly because global uncertainty is pushing investors towards safer assets — like US treasury bonds, gold, etc.
    • It is also partly because the US dollar is becoming stronger, which makes emerging markets, like India, less attractive.
    • FIIs are also selling partly because, there is a sentiment that Indian markets were trading at relatively higher valuations.

• The third factor casing the market fall is weak reported profits. Over the last several quarters, India’s corporate earnings growth has been below expectations.
  • GDP growth is also slowing down from 8.6% in the year before to around 6.2%. The economy is still growing, but it is growing slower.
  • And markets do not like slow growth, especially when they have already priced in faster growth for the economy.

And on top of all this, there are the added pressures of:

• US trade tariffs,
• a weaker rupee, and
• Investors worldwide are simply choosing to stay away from riskier.

So, we can say that what we have right now is a combination of genuine global concerns.

In a way, we can say that, all of these concerns have been identified and are knows to us.

But the thing is, all these factors are now hitting us at the same time. This is the main problem.

But we must also understand that there are explainable reasons for this market fall, and when somethings can be explained, the solution generally also come out soon. It’s a general rule.

So what does it mean? It means, there no is need to panic.

But I want to go deeper in this thing called the “panic in the market.”

Panic selling happens all the time, we know it.

But let’s try to understand that, this time, it is just panic selling happening, or the market is genuinely crashing and should we worry about it or not?

Let’s understand this from a historical context.

IS THIS PANIC OR A REAL CRASH? THE HISTORICAL CONTEXT

This is where most stock investors go wrong.

When the market falls, it feels catastrophic – always.

It feels like something has permanently broken.

But history tells us a very different story.

Let me take you through what actually happened every single time there was a major market fall.

• In 2004 (between Jan and June), the Nifty fell about 29% after a surprise election result. Mr. Vajpayee’s NDA lost election to the Congress. It felt like the end of the world for many NDA supporters. But within 14 months, the market had fully recovered and went on to see new highs.
• Similarly, in 2008, during the global financial crisis, the Nifty fell by 60%. This was a genuine, deep, painful crash. And even from this intense fall, the market eventually recovered. I remember, the Sensex fell to 8,000 levels. But where is the Sensex now? It touched 85,000 levels in 2025, it’s almost 10x from its 2009 levels.
• In 2015 and 2016, the market fell around 20% due to (a) global commodity concerns, (b) concerns about China’s slowing down, and (c) troubles in India’s banking sector. But from this as well, the market recovery started happening withing 1 year.
• In 2020, during COVID, the market fell nearly 38% in just a few weeks. Felt like the world was ending, but recovery happened within months.

Do you see the pattern?

Every single time the stock market has fallen — whether it was 10%, 20%, or 60% — it eventually recovered. Without exception.

Research on the Nifty 50 going back to 1999 shows that if you held an equity fund for 7 years or more, the minimum return was always positive.

And the average CAGR over long periods has been around 14% per annum.

Now compare that with the 3 to 4% you get in a savings account, or the 6 to 7% from fixed deposits, and you will understand why long-term equity investing is so powerful.

So when people ask me —

“Is this panic or a real crash?” —

my honest answer is this:

It “does not matter” as much as you think.

Because even in real crashes, patient long-term investors have always come out unharmed. This thing is, you must stay patient when the market is falling. The only people who permanently lost money were the ones who panicked and sold at the bottom.

According to one study, after corrections of more than 10% in the Nifty 50, the average recovery time has been around 15 months.

Some recoveries took 6 months. Some took 3 years. But the direction was always the same — upward…new investors must always remember this fact about the stock market.

HOW DO I ACTUALLY INVEST IN A FALLING MARKET?

Okay, so history is reassuring. But let me be practical now.

Because saying “just stay invested” is easy to say, but harder to do, right?

You need a proper structure — a checklist — to implement the idea of “being patient and staying invested even during crashes.”

So here is how I personally INVEST when the market is falling.

I ask four questions to myself and try answering it as honestly as possible.

Q1: The first question I ask myself is this: Is the economy fundamentally broken, or is this only a temporary shock?

This is the most BASIC question that comes to my mind.

If the economy has a deep structural problem — like a banking crisis, stubborn inflation, or corrupt governance — then the fall in the market can be justified.

But if the fall is driven by temporary external factors — like high oil prices, FII selling, or global uncertainty (like a war) — then the underlying long-term story may still be intact.

Right now, India’s GDP is growing at around 6% to 6.4%. That is lower than earlier estimates, but it is still one of the fastest growing major economies of the world. Why do I say so?

• The banking sector has cleaned up its balance sheets — gross NPAs have fallen from a peak of 11.2% in 2018 – all the way down to 2.1% in 2025.
• The government is spending big on infrastructure, and this will push the GDP.
• And, domestic consumption is slowly picking up.

All of these are not signs of a fundamentally broken economy.

So my first check (on India’s fundamentals) gives me comfort.

The economy is slowing down a bit, but it is not broken for sure.

Q2: The second question I ask is: Are valuations now reasonable or it was better before?

Let’s understand this practically using a very simple real life example.

When the market was at its peak in September 2024, Indian stocks were trading at very high valuations.

The P/E ratio of the Nifty was at elevated levels. In Oct 2024, the PE touched 23.7 levels.

Now, after a 10% correction, valuations have come down. The PE of Nifty is at 21 levels.

Indian stocks are still not extremely cheap, but they are more reasonable than before for sure.

Particularly in the banking sector, we are seeing some very attractive valuations.

Large private banks are trading at reasonable price-to-book-value (P/B) multiples.

HDFCB: P/B ratio is 2.34, ICICIB: P/B ratio is 2.71, AxisB: P/B ratio is 1.99, Kotak Bank: P/B ratio is 2.26.

Generally, a P/B ratio close to 2 in such large private sector banks is considered good.

Some public sector banks as well are trading at PE ratios of 6 to 9 times earnings, which is historically very low.

This does not mean that these stocks cannot go lower.

But it does mean the margin of safety has improved for these banks (especially in the private bank basket).

Q3: The third question I ask is: What is my time horizon?

This is personal, and only you can answer it for yourself.

If you need the money in the next one or two years — say, to pay for your child’s education, or for a down payment of your new house, for these types of examples, the stock market is not the right place to keep your money in times like now.

Correction and crash can last for months or even years.

You should not take the risk by parking your money in stock market if you need it so soon.

But if your time horizon is three/five years or more — then the current correction is not a threat. Instead, I’ll say it is an opportunity. How?

Because you are buying at lower prices than you were buying six months ago, right?

Equity bought in such times, and then if held on for next 5/7 years, can fetch fantastic returns.

Q4: The fourth question I ask is: Do I have financial stability to stay invested?

This is something we do not discuss enough before investing.

Before you invest in stocks — whether it is in correction or no correction phase — you must have certain things in place:

• First: Your emergency fund should be ready. Six months of expenses, kept in a fixed deposit or in a liquid fund.
• Next: You should have no high-interest debt, like credit card dues or even personal loans.
• Third: The money you are investing through SIPs, you must be sure that you will not need this money for say next 5/7 years at least.

If any of these 3 conditions are not met, your priority should be to fix those first. Why?

Because there is no point buying stocks at a correction if you may have to sell them in six months.

If all these conditions are met — good economy fundamentals, better valuations, long time horizon, and you also have a strong financial stability — then the answer to the question “should I buy?” is definitely yes.

But even then, do not invest all at once. Invest systematically and be patient all the time.

WHICH SECTORS ARE WORTH WATCHING?

Now let me briefly talk about where I personally think the better opportunities are, in the current environment.

I want to be careful here because I am not giving specific buy or sell recommendations.

What I am sharing is a general observation of where value appears to be emerging after this correction.

• Idea #1: The first area is the banking sector. Indian banks have cleaned up their balance sheets remarkably over the last 5 years.
  • The NPA situation, which was a serious problem in 2017 and 2018, is now largely behind us.
  • Credit growth is stabilizing.
  • The RBI has already cut the repo rate to 5.25% in December 2025, which is good for credit demand. When borrowing becomes cheaper, more people and businesses take loans, which helps bank profits.
  • Large-cap private banks and a few selected public sector banks are now trading at valuations that look reasonable compared to their historical averages.

• Idea #2: The second area worth watching is domestic consumption. These are those companies that serve the Indian consumer directly.
  • Rural consumption is picking up, with rural volume growth hitting 7.7% in the second quarter of FY26.
  • The government’s income tax relief announced in the recent budget is also expected to put more money in the hands of the middle class.
  • This should benefit FMCG companies, consumer durables, and related sectors. But this will not happen in quick time. Investors must be ready to hold quality FMCG stocks for at least next 3 years. I will say, the longer will be the holding time, the better. This is my guess.

• Idea #3: The third area is defence andcapital goods.
  • These companies have massive order books that provide multi-year revenue visibility.
  • Companies like HAL and BEL order book alone stands at approximately 1.89 lakh crore rupees.
    • But this is also true that these stocks are not cheap. A public sector company trading at a PE30 and PE55 is not common. So personally, I may not invest in such Defence PSU’s but it is also true that their revenue and profit visibility is very strong.

Now, I am not saying go and buy all of these tomorrow.

What I am saying is — in a market correction, quality companies in good sectors become available at better prices.

What I’m saying is that, another 10% correction and the same stocks may start looking like an opportunity.

WHAT SHOULD YOU ACTUALLY DO RIGHT NOW?

Let me be very practical and tell you exactly what I would do, and what I am actually doing in a slow and silent way.

If you already have a running SIP — do not stop it.

This is the most important thing.

SIPs work best when people continue investing even during Market corrections. In fact, if you can, increase the value of your monthly SIPs, that will be best.

Over time, this process of buying more units at falling NAVs lowers your average cost and it can dramatically improve your overall returns.

Stopping your SIP now is one of the worst thing you can do to your ongoing investment.

If you have some additional lump sum money, I’m talking about that money that you have been waiting to invest since long,  this is a reasonable time to start deploying it into equity.

But I would suggest doing it only in stages .

Do not put it all in one day.

Be prepared to spread it over three months or even six months.

That way, if the market falls further, you will be buying at even lower prices.

And if it recovers quickly, you will still have bought at a decent price and you will still have cash ready for investment if the opportunity comes again.

If you are looking at stocks specifically, focus on their fundamentals.

• Look at companies with strong profit growth and cash flows, clean balance sheets, manageable debt, and competitive advantages in their sector.
• Avoid speculative stocks or penny stocks.

In a falling or recovering market, focus should be on quality stocks. They will always lead the rally after the crash is over.

And yes, when the market is crashing, do not check your portfolio every hour.

Do not watch business news or any TV news covering the market all day.

Do not let the noise drive your decisions.

This is perhaps the hardest part of investing. But it is also the most important.

The biggest destroyer of investor returns is not market crashes — it is the emotional decisions we make during market crashes.

Remember, our job is to stay invested in quality stocks during such times, no matter how steep is the fall.

CONCLUSION

So let me quickly conclude and give you my final thoughts.

Remember why you started investing.

It was not to get rich tomorrow. It was to build real wealth over time.

The market will help you do that, but only if you have the patience to let it help you.

A crashing market demands only two things from you: (a) Buy good stocks and then (b) hold.  

Potentially Undervalued Indian Stocks After the Correction

SL	Sector	Company	My Remarks
1	Banking	HDFC Bank	The stock has underperformed for almost three years after the HDFC merger, compressing valuations to near historical averages (~2.3 P/B). For a bank that consistently compounds earnings with strong retail lending and industry-leading asset quality, this valuation compression looks temporary rather than structural.
2	Banking	ICICI Bank	One of the strongest private bank turnarounds in India with improving ROA and disciplined lending. Yet the stock still trades at only mid-2x P/B despite consistently delivering superior profitability and capital adequacy. The market may be underpricing the durability of its earnings cycle.
3	Banking	Axis Bank	The Citi consumer business acquisition temporarily suppressed return ratios, which kept the stock cheaper than peers. As integration completes, operating leverage could push ROE meaningfully higher, creating a valuation rerating opportunity.
4	Banking	IndusInd Bank	Valuation remains close to ~1–1.2 P/B despite a strong franchise in vehicle finance and improving corporate lending. The market is overly discounting short-term concerns around asset quality cycles. If credit costs normalize, earnings growth could surprise on the upside.
5	Domestic Consumption	Hindustan Unilever	FMCG demand slowdown has compressed the valuation premium slightly, but HUL remains the strongest distribution and brand platform in India. When rural consumption cycles recover, operating leverage can restore earnings growth faster than the market expects.
6	Domestic Consumption	ITC Ltd	The market still values ITC partly as a tobacco company despite rapid growth in FMCG, hotels and agri businesses. Cash flows remain extremely strong, dividend yield is attractive, and non-tobacco segments are steadily improving margins.
7	Domestic Consumption	Titan Company	Short-term demand fluctuations in discretionary spending occasionally compress the stock, but Titan’s brand moat in jewellery retail is almost unchallenged. Over a decade, organised jewellery market share gains alone can drive long-term compounding.
8	Domestic Consumption	Dabur India	Rural demand weakness temporarily slowed growth, but Dabur’s strong Ayurvedic and healthcare positioning provides long-term pricing power. As rural consumption normalizes, earnings visibility improves significantly.
9	Defence & Capital Goods	Bharat Electronics (BEL)	Despite premium valuations, BEL’s order book and consistent government contracts provide extremely stable earnings visibility. With defence electronics demand rising and exports growing, the company could justify higher long-term earnings multiples.
10	Defence & Capital Goods	Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL)	HAL has one of the largest defence order books in India (over ₹1.9 lakh crore), providing multi-year revenue visibility. The market occasionally discounts execution risks, but indigenous fighter aircraft and helicopter programs create a powerful structural growth runway.
11	Defence & Capital Goods	Larsen & Toubro (L&T)	A capital-goods giant benefiting from India’s infrastructure and defence capex cycle. The stock often appears expensive, but long-cycle engineering projects and strong order inflows provide visibility for multi-year earnings expansion.
12	Defence & Capital Goods	Data Patterns (India)	A niche defence electronics player with high-margin technology products. Valuation corrections have occasionally occurred despite strong export potential and increasing domestic defence localisation demand.